Author Archives:

Northrop Grumman: This Old Dog Has Some New Tricks, Shares Look Like A Bargain

Thesis

Northrop Grumman (NOC) conducts most of its business with the U.S. government, principally the Department of Defense. NOC also transacts with foreign governments and makes commercial sales both domestically and overseas. In January 2009, the company reorganized its reported business segments into five, from seven. Its shipbuilding operations were spun off to shareholders in March 2011. The Information & Services segment (23% of 2010 revenue and 21% of segment operating income) provides products and services in the areas of command, control, communications, computers and intelligence (C4I); air and missile defense; airborne reconnaissance; intelligence processing; decision support systems; cybersecurity; information technology; and systems engineering and integration. It consists of three business areas: Defense Systems, Intelligence Systems, and Civil Systems.

NOC is a well run defense company that continues to demonstrate improving operating performance in a difficult environment. The management has been constantly finding ways to create value through a variety of measures including portfolio shaping. Demand for NOC’s military electronics is primarily driven by growth in the U.S. defense budget, which accounts for about 40% of global military weapons spending. Based on U.S. Department of Defense statistics from fiscal 2000 (Oct.) through fiscal 2010, the (weapons) procurement and R&D segments of total U.S. defense budget authority rose at 7.6% and 9.0% compound annual rates, respectively. However, one of the reputed industry analysis firms expects growth in defense budgets to flatten or decline going forward, due to pressure resulting from high U.S. budget deficits and increased entitlements spending.

While the defensiveness will ultimately be the overriding theme for defense stocks in 2012, there are plenty of industry-specific issues at play. The two largest visible catalysts this year are the resolution of sequestration and November’s presidential election. While both have clear implications for defense, the former is largely already priced in and the latter’s influence on defense performance will be more a function of its impact on the broader market than the defense industry itself given the stance that defense stocks will act defensively in 2012.

This year’s relatively weak top-line outlook is offset somewhat by the company’s forecast for ~11.0% segment operating margin. While this margin level represents a 60 bps decline from 2011, it is still ~30 bps higher than the segment operating margin implied by the company’s long-term margin targets for each segment in the context of management’s segment revenue guidance for this year. Operating margin guidance for 2012 for each of the segments is anywhere from 0-100 bps higher than the long-term targets (Aerospace Systems – 11%, Electronic Systems – 13%, Information Systems – 9%, and Technical Services – 8%). In the past, management has noted that its margins could fall below the long-term goals temporarily in a declining sales environment as it restructured and took cost out, and this is therefore a possibility in 2013-2014.

NOC is guiding to GAAP EPS of $6.40-6.70 on sales of $24.7-25.4 bn and a segment operating margin of ~11.0% in

2012. The midpoint of management’s sales guidance implies a 5% y/y sales decline in 2012. Revenue pressure is most acute in NOC’s Technical Services segment, where the midpoint of management’s sales guidance of $2.6-2.7 bn implies a 17% y/y decline. Revenue guidance for the Information Systems and Electronic Systems segments implies 5% and 4% y/y declines at the midpoint, respectively, while the company sees the most support in the Aerospace Systems segment which management is only guiding down 1% y/y at the midpoint.

Q4 EPS of $2.09 exceeded Bloomberg consensus estimate by 42 cents. However, Sales of $6.5 bn in the quarter were down 4% organically y/y, and resulted in a total organic sales decline of 4% for 2011. The sales miss in the quarter was more than offset by segment operating margin of 11.9%, which was 90 bps higher than consensus estimate of 11.0%. Non-operating items including a lower tax rate, $36 mn of other non-operating income, and a lower share count also contributed to the beat. Within the segments, Technical Services was the lone segment to exceed streets’ sales expectation, while the other three segments each missed the sales forecast with the most pronounced miss (-4%) coming in the Aerospace Systems segment. However, operating margins exceeded estimates in every segment with the largest outperformance (+126 bps) occurring in the Information Systems segment. The company was awarded $7.1 bn of new orders in the quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill of 1.09x. However, at the end of the quarter, the total backlog stood at $39.5 bn, down 6% sequentially and 12% y/y.

Management & Stewardship

Northrop boasts of an enviable management with industry stewards from reputed organizations. Wes Bush is the Chairman and CEO of the company. He was elected as the chairman in July 2011 and was named CEO in January 2010. Bush had a long employment history with TRW and moved to Northrop when TRW was acquired by Northrop. Lewis Coleman is a lead independent director with NOC and is the president and CFO with Dreamworks Animation SKG (DWA). His past experience spans across leading financial institutions like Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC). Kenneth Bedingfield is the VP finance with NOC. Prior to joining NOC, Ken has a 17 year stint with KPMG LLP. Ken leads all aspects of corporate accounting operations including maintenance and enforcement of corporate accounting policies and procedures in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and Securities and Exchange Commission requirements, ensuring the integrity of the company’s financial data and reporting. Some of the other key executives include Sid Ashworth, Mark Caylor, Sheila Cheston, Gary Ervin, and Gloria Flach. The insiders of the company hold less than 1% of the company.

Valuation:

NOC is trading at 10x 2013E PAEPS (Pension adjusted EPS) estimate, which remains the richest valuation in the large cap defense coverage universe by a wide margin and represents a 16% premium to the average valuation of its large cap defense peers. The primary driver of the stock’s premium valuation is NOC’s unique position among its peers as a generator of pension income. This attribute leads some investors to pay for NOC’s GAAP EPS and, on that basis, NOC looks much more fairly valued. On 2013E EPS, NOC trades at 9.2x, in line with the 9.2x average of its peers. However, pension-adjusted EPS is a better valuation metric, especially considering investors should pay for pension income. Given NOC’s absolute level of valuation compared to the market, it’s dividend growth rate, and high ROIC we believe the shares are a buy at current levels.

Based on a DCF analysis the intrinsic value of NOC is around $87.

Disclosure: I am long NOC.

Disclaimer: This discussion is for informational purposes and should not be taken as a recommendation to purchase any individual securities. Information within this discussion and investment determination of the author may change due to changes in investment strategy when warranted by changing market conditions, or if a security’s underlying fundamentals or valuation measures change. There is no guarantee that, should market conditions repeat, this security will perform in the same way in the future. There is no guarantee that the opinions expressed herein will be valid beyond the date of this presentation. There can be no assurance that the author will continue to hold this position in companies described herein, and may change any of his position at any time. We use or best efforts to obtain good data in our models, however it can’t be guaranteed that our inputs and data are correct. This is not a recommendation for readers to purchase shares in the above security without consulting your financial professional to discuss your own risk tolerance and objectives.

Lockheed Martin: Include This Weapon In Your Portfolio For Capital Gains

Lockheed Martin (LMT)

Share Price: $89.5
Intrinsic Value: $111
Buy Below: $90
Business description and background:

Lockheed Martin Corporation engages in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, operation, and sustainment of advanced technology systems and products in the areas of defense, space, intelligence, homeland security, and government information technology in the United States and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Aeronautics, Electronic Systems, and Information Systems & Global Services (IS&GS), and Space Systems. Lockheed Martin Corporation was founded in 1909 and is based in Bethesda, Maryland.

(Source: Yahoo)

Thesis

With estimated 2011 sales of $47 billion, LMT is the world’s largest military weapons maker. In 2010, the company derived 84% of its net sales from the U.S. government, including the Department of Defense (DoD) as well as non-DoD agencies. Sales to foreign governments contributed 15% of net sales (up from 13% in 2009), with 1% of net sales to commercial and other customers. Lockheed Martin conducts business through four operating segments: Aeronautics; Electronic Systems; Space Systems; and Information Systems & Global Services.

The law passed by Congress will cut into planned defense spending significantly, but it is not yet clear how much. In a best case scenario, which would include no further cuts, the base budget will fall slightly from FY11′s $529 bn into the ~$527 bn range in both FY12 and FY13. In the worst case, Congress could fail to agree on further deficit reduction and the bill’s trigger provisions would take effect, in which case the DoD base budget would drop to ~$472 bn in FY13. This will be a dire scenario for the DoD and industry, and therefore it is unlikely to occur, despite the fact that avoiding it means Republicans will likely have to agree to tax increases of some variety (likely the elimination of tax expenditures/deductions) and Democrats to entitlement cuts, which neither side has been willing to do thus far. One can assume a middle of the road outcome and organic growth forecasts in which Congress cuts defense spending by an incremental $180 bn over nine years, which would take the base budget to ~$508 bn in FY13.

LMT had a spectacular year in 2011, returning 21% compared to only 1% for the other defense primes on average. In addition, while not all companies have reported yet, it is likely that LMT, at 2%, will be the only defense prime to deliver y/y organic growth in 2011. The stock no longer looks as cheap as it did entering last year, and with its dividend already at attractive levels it is unlikely that the company will substantially increase its dividend this year as it did last September. With its valuation more in-line with peers, a challenging fundamental outlook, and no clear catalysts may restrict the relative upside for the stock now. In addition, the F-35 program will continue to face a budget threat as long as the fiscal situation remains unsustainable. The budget situation could still rear its head again this year as sequestration is still the law of the land, and as long as this is the case we see continued overhang on the F-35 program

While defense companies face organic sales declines in the coming years, balance sheets should remain strong and cash flows dependable, enabling management teams to continue returning cash to shareholders. Like many other defense companies, Lockheed Martin Corp has also approved up to $1 billion in August 2011 to an existing stock buyback program started in October 2010. The defense company’s board of directors is expected to consider its next share repurchase program this fall. Defense companies have already been willing to return cash over the past several years, though the preferred vehicle-buybacks may be suboptimal, and direct transfers in the form of dividends would be preferable. Repurchases in the current environment is likely to be a bet on future defense budgets. To the extent that companies do return cash, however, it would be better to prefer special dividends to share repurchases. The lack of any substantial special dividends in recent years amidst the large volumes of cash that have been poured into share repurchase maybe a substantial and unnecessary risk to shareholder value. The stocks of the five leading defense large caps (excluding Boeing) now trade 20% below the average price at which they have repurchased stock over the past five years. This share repurchase activity has involved a very substantial use of cash – in total the five companies over the five years have repurchased $32 bn of stock, which for perspective represents 39% of their combined market caps today.

Demand for military equipment and systems are primarily driven by growth in the procurement and R&D sectors of the U.S. defense budget. Based on U.S. Department of Defense statistics, from FY 00 (Oct.) through FY 10, the procurement and R&D budgets within the U.S. defense budget expanded at compound annual rates of 9.0% and 7.6%, respectively. However, Standard & Poor’s expects defense budgets to decline going forward, due to pressure resulting from high U.S. budget deficits and increased entitlement spending.

Return on invested capital, adjusted to exclude a large decline in stockholders’ equity in 2008, was 17.9% in 2010 and 20.0% in 2009. The Aerospace & Defense industry recorded an average return on invested capital of 15.7% in 2010 and 14.6% in 2009. Free cash flow as a percentage of sales was 6.0% in 2010 and 5.1% in 2009, versus an industry average of 6.7% in 2010 and 7.5% in 2009.

Management & Stewardship

Lockheed boasts of a strong and commendable management team with industry stewards. Robert J.Stevens is the Chairman and CEO of Lockheed Martin since April 2005. He is an industry veteran with over 30 years of experience in various organizations within government sectors including but not limited to Mosanto Company, Air Traffic management. Mr. Kubasik has served as President and Chief Operating Officer of LMT since January 2010. He previously served as Executive Vice President – Electronic Systems from September 2007 to December 2009, and as Chief Financial Officer from February 2001 to August 2007. Among its executive vice president’s one can count Ralph D.Heath. Mr. Heath has served as Executive Vice President since January 2005. He previously served as Executive Vice President and General Manager of the F-22 Program from November 2002 to December 2004.

The management and other insiders own around 0.1% of the company.

Valuation

We have used the DCF valuation using conservative estimates to arrive at the fair value of LMT at $111 which represents a 23% premium to its current trading price.

Disclosure: I am long LMT.

Disclaimer: This discussion is for informational purposes and should not be taken as a recommendation to purchase any individual securities. Information within this discussion and investment determination of the author may change due to changes in investment strategy when warranted by changing market conditions, or if a security’s underlying fundamentals or valuation measures change. There is no guarantee that, should market conditions repeat, this security will perform in the same way in the future. There is no guarantee that the opinions expressed herein will be valid beyond the date of this presentation. There can be no assurance that the author will continue to hold this position in companies described herein, and may change any of his position at any time. We use or best efforts to obtain good data in our models, however it can’t be guaranteed that our inputs and data are correct. This is not a recommendation for readers to purchase shares in the above security without consulting your financial professional to discuss your own risk tolerance and objectives.